A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
